On the evening of Thursday (25th), Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on Twitter that the biggest problem with the company’s expansion of lithium-ion battery production is “nickel deficiency.”
Nickel is a key component of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles. It packs more energy into batteries and allows manufacturers to reduce the use of cobalt because cobalt is more expensive and the supply chain is less transparent. At present, Tesla uses a large number of NCM811 high-nickel batteries but has introduced lithium iron phosphate batteries in the standard mileage version.
Data shows that nickel supply may be in short supply as early as 2023. According to analysts’ estimates, as demand for lithium-ion batteries picks up, there will be a tight supply of nickel in the next two to three years.
Musk blatantly called the mining company at the earnings conference last year, asking for “mining more nickel.” He said, “If you mine nickel efficiently in an environmentally friendly way, Tesla will give you a long-term big contract.” In January this year, in an interview with foreign media, Musk also asked about the development of Tesla batteries. Once stated that “nickel is our biggest bottleneck.”
In fact, after being struck in the neck by cobalt, Tesla started the “road to cobalt.” Musk began to bet on nickel because he believes that nickel is a promising and reliable metal that can increase the output of the battery industry. Unexpectedly, the “Nickelpan Rebirth” still cannot help Tesla achieve its long-term goals, and the lack of upstream raw material output still restricts the company’s sales goals.
According to statistics, by 2030, according to estimates that about 20% of Tesla’s new cars will use lithium iron phosphate batteries, Tesla will use an average of 45 kilograms of nickel ore per car. If according to the established plan, Tesla switches to nickel-cobalt-manganese-aluminum quaternary batteries in the Chinese market, its use of nickel will rise slightly, while its use of cobalt will slightly decline.
And if according to what Musk previously declared on Twitter, that Tesla will increase its annual production capacity to 20 million by 2030, the scale of nickel ore needed for these batteries will reach the total global nickel ore output in 2019. More than 30%. However, it should be noted that the total global nickel mine production in 2020 will still shrink by 20% compared with 2019.
Analysts said that at this scale, Tesla has only one way to ensure the supply of nickel ore, and that is to acquire the world’s top six nickel ore suppliers, namely Russia’s Norilsk, Brazil’s Vale, and China. Jinchuan Group, Sumitomo, Glencore, and BHP Billiton.