The Global Demand For Steel Will Reach 16.161 Million Tons In 2018
The World Steel Association recently released the results of short-term steel demand forecast in April 2018, which will reach 16.161 billion tons in 2018, up 1.8% from 2017. By 2019, global steel demand is expected to grow by 0.7% to 16.267 billion tons.
In comments on the forecast, Mr. T.V. Narendran, chairman of the World Steel Association Market Research Committee, said: "in the coming years, the global economic situation is expected to continue to maintain a good momentum, thanks to the recovery of investment in developed economies and the rising level of confidence. Benefiting from this, steel demand in developed and developing economies is expected to continue to grow, and risk factors will be relatively limited. However, the negative effects of the intensification of trade tensions and the possible increase in interest rates by the US and the EU may weaken the current growth momentum. "
The forecast results indicate that the upstream and downside risks are basically balanced. In 2018, the boost of consumer confidence, the strong investment level and the recovery of commodity prices are creating a virtuous cycle for iron and steel demand in developed and developing economies. In 2019, further deceleration of China's economy and higher interest rates will lead to a weakening of investment growth and a slight slowdown in steel demand.
In 2017, the moderate stimulus measures of the Chinese government slightly stimulated the growth of the construction market, but investment activities continued to slow down, and steel demand grew only slightly.
With the support of strong economic fundamentals such as high consumer confidence, income growth and low interest rates to boost consumption and investment, the prospects for US steel demand remain strong. The depreciation of the US dollar and the increase in investment activities support the manufacturing industry, while rising housing prices and stable growth in the non-residential sector indicate that the fundamentals of the construction industry are good.
The EU's economic development is strong and the scope of economic recovery is expanding. Driven by strong domestic and external demand, investment activities are expected to remain the main growth momentum, while low inflation, wages and real income growth will support private consumption. Steel demand will be supported by non residential construction and strong manufacturing activities.
The moderate recovery in Russia and Brazil is expected to continue. Russia's economic recovery will be supported by credit expansion, loose monetary policy and improved consumer and business confidence. At the beginning of 2017, Brazil's economy began to go out of deep recession. However, the sustainability of this recovery is still uncertain. In addition, the building activities have been slowly restored. Other Latin American economies are beginning to recover, and economic growth in the region may accelerate if the reform is carried out, but the upcoming elections will bring uncertainty.